Introducing: The Next One Term President

I don’t know which one it will be of course, and neither do you. The American electorate is fickle, and the polls are more so. My point with this blog is that I believe whichever guy gets elected, he’ll only serve one term.

If John McCain gets elected, it will be because he persuaded some moderates that he has more in common with them than Barack Obama does. But more than that, for McCain to win conservatives will have to vote for him in droves.

If McCain gets the conservative vote then conservatives will expect him to support their causes for the next four years. Will McCain do that? He seemed to be drifting left for years, and recently he publicly flirted with the idea of going pro choice for his VP. Despite the misgivings of some commentators, or perhaps partially because of those misgivings, social conservatives love Sarah Palin. They love her so much in fact, that they’re more willing than ever to give McCain the benefit of the doubt. But this good will goes only so far. If McCain has any more left wing ideas like having the government refinance the loans of homeowners who want a break, the fiscal conservatives won’t stay with him through Election Day, much less for four years.

There are some Democrats who will spend the next four years hating a President McCain just because he’s a Republican. With that demographic against him, if McCain loses his base, he’ll be done in 2012.

If Barack Obama wins, it will be because so many people are so unhappy with things in this country that they will vote for the man who offers change. But once elected, what changes will Senator Obama advocate? Based on his record, they’ll be liberal ones. Barack Obama votes left of center, as typified by his votes in the Illinois legislature against a bill that would have provided medical care for babies who survive abortion procedures. Advocating liberal change would not be a problem for Obama were it not for the fact the Democrats have only won three presidential elections since 1964. Once it was with Jimmy Carter, a born again candidate who appealed to evangelicals (at least in 1976). Twice, they won with Bill Clinton, who not only received less than 50% of the votes both times but also ran as a new (translation: less liberal) Democrat. Americans seem comfortable with a Democrat-controlled Congress, but not so much with a Democrat in the White House.

If Obama wins, will it be because he is so irresistible or because he is running against the Republicans in tumultuous times? If it’s the latter, will that be enough in four years? It won’t if Mike Hucakbee has anything to say about it.