So the results are in from the Republican caucuses in Iowa. Who won? Who lost?
I guess one could spin Mitt Romney’s squeaker of a victory either way. He beat Rick Santorum, a guy who was buried in the polls for months, by just 8 votes. One could argue that a significant percentage of Republicans haven’t budged from their Anyone-But-Romney position. On the other hand, people had been expecting religious conservatives in Iowa to hand the victory to somebody else for months now, so Romney should be pleased with any kind of victory. And each victory helps cast Romney in the role of “winner” with his opponents playing the losers.
Rick Santorum might have gained more from finishing second than Romney got from finishing first. The former Representative and Senator went from total obscurity to being a serious contender. Will he be able to withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a front runner? If so, the socially conservative Santorum could give Romney a serious run for his money.
Michele Bachmann was a big time loser. She had created buzz early on, but finishing in single digits made it clear that she had no future in the race, so she suspended her campaign. A lot of her support (such as it turned out to be) comes from social conservatives, so her decision to pull out should help Santorum. I wouldn’t be surprised if she endorsed him in the coming days.
Rick Perry had money and front runner status over the summer, so his fifth place finish might signal that he is finished for good in 2012. It’s hard to say for sure where his supporters will go. But given that he was initially embraced by Republicans who knew very little about him, it stands to reason that these voters, too, might really just want an alternative to Romney.
Newt Gingrich was leading in Iowa just two months ago, making his plummet to fourth place pretty remarkable. When he drops out, which might take awhile, his voters might split between Romney and Santorum. Those who see Gingrich as experienced and intellectual enough to be President might see those qualities in Romney. Those who think of Gingrich as a conservative might opt for Santorum over the more moderate Romney.
Where does Ron Paul fit into all of this? He only finished a few percentage points behind Romney and Santorum. Paul certainly got enough votes to justify going forward and continuing to compete. He is a smart man and a creative thinker in a time where America needs some creative solutions to its problems. Still, at the end of the day he’s a Republican who wants to legalize drugs. This hardly seems like his number one priority, but it is still part of the package, so it is hard to see him capturing the imagination of a majority of Republicans.